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Thoughtful Money

$4,000 is the new floor for gold, not the ceiling, says Miles Franklin's president
7 calls: Gold's new critical-minerals status, Hong Kong's 24-hour gold settlement system, a tax-loss swap that beats the wash-sale rule, and China's…
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Big Tech's $4T selloff is a rotation, not a breakdown, says RIA Advisors strategist
10 arguments: why Google looks cheap next to Costco and Walmart, a rotation model close to flipping back to growth, record margin debt, and why bonds…
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6 months ahead of government data, freight shows no AI slowdown, FreightWaves CEO finds
7 calls: why GLP-1 drugs show up in food freight, why housing weighs on 20% of US volume, and why railroads let investors own the AI buildout without AI…
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30% or worse: a stock decline that size wouldn't surprise Oxbow, Thoughtful Money finds
5 arguments: a valuation gap at a 35-year extreme, an economy splitting on data-center spending, and why Oxbow is driving an "SUV, not a Ferrari"
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$80B Anthropic loss was a convertible-note markdown, RIA Advisors strategist finds
9 calls: a tight band before a break, breadth as a contrarian signal, valuations falling to 19x, a 10-year yield that overshot, and a full exit from…
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Croft Financial portfolio manager: yields rose 130bps in 7 months; 80bps ended 3 cycles
14 arguments: why she blames oil rather than US deficits for higher yields, why Canadian homes at 8.9 times income have further to fall, and why…
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Treasuries at 5.3% nearly double expected stock returns, says RIA Advisors CIO
10 calls: why RIA Advisors moved from growth to value for year-end, why he doubts 8% Treasury yields, and what he looks for in a municipal bond
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TJM strategist: Warsh would buy bonds only after a 35% Nasdaq drop and a 5.5% 10-year
14 predictions: why he doubts the 10-year runs much past 5.5%, why he sees disinflation by late 2027, and why zero-day options may make the stock market…
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2027 will very likely be a disaster for stocks and bonds, says a long-short fund manager
13 calls: why his model just moved him from net long to neutral, the 720% debt-to-revenue figure behind his bond bear case, and the signals that would…
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RIA Advisors strategist: each 10-year yield spike this large since 1994 preceded a drop
16 calls: why he calls 5% Treasury yields a gift, how RIA is rebuilding its bond portfolio next week, and why he says only megacap tech is hiding what…
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EMA managing partner: Bitcoin is probably headed to $200K–$300K, gold back over $5K
16 insights: why the next Fed money-printing round will be bigger than Powell's, the 10%–30% hedge he says everyone needs, and the four small miners he…
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Income Factory founder on PIMCO's PDI: "It's paying a yield now of 19%"
12 takeaways: why he wants rates to rise, the credit-fund discounts he says price in defaults never seen, a Barings BDC at about 20% off, and his…
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